Be Prepared!!!

Submitted by TemoL on Fri, 12/03/2010 - 7:25am

A complicated weather situation around Fiji at the moment but the outlook is more straight forward - Cloud rain and increasing wind.

Two tropical deprerssions are currently observed in the vicinity of Fiji - TD 13F lies to the WNW over northern Vanuatu while TD 14F lies to the NE near Samoa.

Both lie in locatins where the surrounding ocean and atmospheric conditions favour further lowering of pressure and strengthening of winds.

The likelihood of at least one of these systems reaching tropical cyclone strength is probably 90% and theres a better than even chance they both will.

The first to affect Fiji will be 14F which is forecast to follow a SW path more or less directly towards Fiji in the next 48 hours, bringing it close to Vanua Levu by early Sunday, probably as a Category 1 or 2 tropical cyclone.

Meantime 13F will remain more or less stationary hovering close by to the WNW and is likely intensify into a TC itself.

Because there are two systems near to each other the movement forecasts of each are uncertain, much more so than if they were each present in the same location without the other around.

This is because they interact with each other in complex ways which can change significantly in short periods of time depending upon their individual intensity. So I won't expand much beyond Sunday at this point but suffice to say we are entering a perod of high risk of TC impacts to Fiji, the highest since TC Mick in December.